The PGA Tour heads to Maryland this week for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship. While this event features a more robust field than the one we saw at last week’s Mexico Open, it is a little light on star-power, with Rory McIlroy currently sitting as the +850 favorite.
There aren’t many world-beaters after McIlroy, as the second-choice is Corey Conners at +1600 followed by Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman and Russell Henley all at +2000.
In other words, this is a very beatable field and one where a longshot could easily descend from the clouds to take home the title.
Furthering that notion is the fact that we haven’t seen a PGA Tour event at this course since 2018 and the last two winning scores differed quite a bit. In 2017, Kyle Stanley won here by posting a 7-under par after a playoff with Charles Howell III. The following year, Francesco Molinari took home the title with a blistering 21-under showing.
With so many unknowns and a relatively weak field, it behooves bettors to take some shots down the board.
Here are three longshots that have value at the 2022 Wells Fargo:
Francesco Molinari (+10000): It’s been a slow couple of years for Francesco Molinari since finishing T5 at the Masters in 2019, but he does have four top-10 finishes in 25 events dating back to the beginning of 2021. Those top-10 finishes are accompanied with a smattering of missed cuts, but we at least know Molinari has what it takes to win — which is something to be considered when the prices get this deep. Molinari was incredible at this course back en route to a win in 2018, so why not take a shot on him at triple-digits?
Branden Grace (+13000): A nine-time winner on the European Tour and a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, Branden Grace should be a good fit for TPC Potomac, which is a shorter course that requires players to keep the ball out of trouble. Grace is a type of player that you want to target in grind-it-out style tournaments where the winning score could be in the single digits. Given what we saw here in 2017, it’s worth adding Grace to your card in case this is a rock fight.
Matt Wallace (+40000): For the most part, Matt Wallace has been an unmitigated disaster in 2022 — that’s why he’s priced like this — but he did show some signs of life last week at the Mexico Open, where he briefly held the lead before coming completely undone and finishing 2-over for the weekend. Like Grace, Wallace should be able to punch above his weight class if this tournament proves to be a tough test where you need to grind out pars.