Two of the Premier League’s pleasant surprises go head to head in West London on Monday afternoon.
Fulham, remarkably just six points from a Champions League spot in their first season back in the top division, are +265 underdogs against Brentford, who also have their sights set on European football in their second-ever Premier League campaign.
Which team has the most value in Monday’s West London Derby?
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET and the game will be broadcast on USA Network.
Brentford v Fulham prediction
Fulham have been great since their promotion from the Championship. The Cottagers got off to a hot start and then fell a bit ahead of the World Cup, but it’s been all bells and whistles for Fulham ever since.
The Cottagers 6-2-2 since the break and have +5 goals difference in those 10 matches. Incredibly, Fulham have conceded just five goals since returning to action.
Any defense can get hot during a football season, but Fulham’s defensive form borders on ridiculous. The Cottagers are said to be one of the worst teams in the Premier League this season to keep the ball out of their net, and their underlying stats suggest they should top that. But somehow Fulham have been a top-10 defending side in the league this season, leading the circuit in goals conceded per 90 since the World Cup.
However, it all seems like a house of cards. Overall, Fulham are 18th in expected goals against and 20th in major scoring opportunities allowed. Since the break, the Cottagers have conceded 13.5 expected goals in 10 games – which isn’t a terrible figure at all – but have only conceded five. That is black magic and seems untenable.
Brentford has also been in top form since the World Cup. The Bees went into half time with a monumental upset as a +1900 underdog against Manchester City and have since been unbeaten in their eight games, albeit with four draws.
Like Fulham, Brentford’s defense has run the bus. The Bees have conceded just five goals in eight games, but unlike their West London rivals, Brentford’s statistical portfolio suggests their +9 goal difference since Qatar 2022 is legit.
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At some point, Fulham’s defensive high-wire act will catch up to them. The numbers suggest the Cottagers will find out eventually – and what better time for that to happen than on Monday afternoon at Brentford Community Stadium?
Choose Brentford vs Fulham
Brentford +104 (Bet Rivers)
